A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
